In a surprise session, the Russian Duma is passing laws introducing mobilization and martial law into the criminal code. The upper house could vote on this tomorrow. Meanwhile, Russia claims to be organizing lightning referenda, partly by mail and partly online, in Luhansk and Donetsk and in Kherson on whether the people living there want to be incorporated into the Russian Federation. About that: Ukrainian forces still control significant portions of these areas. Huge areas have no reliable Internet service or postal service. And of course, many thousands have abandoned their homes in these regions for refuge in western Ukraine, Western Europe, or — depending on their political allegiances and family ties — in Russia. Any referendum will be not just a sham, it will be obviously and provocatively presented as a sham.
At first glance, it looks politically like the Russian government is moving on from recognizing “the independence” of Luhansk and Donetsk, to preparing itself to announce their full annexation, before mobilizing the Russian economy and society to achieve that end.
Nothing is guaranteed in war. But a mobilization of Russian society will take months to complete, suggesting that Putin is hunkering down for a longer war, with all the dangers, death, and destabilization that implies.