From a reader:
I’m in complete agreement with Buchanan that below-replacement birthrates in Western societies is a serious problem, but here’s a little ammunition for your observation that “we know from the incredible analytical cock-up that was overpopulation hysteria that demographic trends can change and are hard to predict.”
Russia, one of the Caucasian nations cited by Buchanan as facing demographic disaster, is in fact at the moment experiencing something of a baby boom. The Russian birthrate, while rising, is still below replacement level, but last year Russia had it’s largest number of births in 15 years, and consequently the rate of population decline has slowed dramatically. The 750,000 annual loss of previous years shrank to just 223,000 in the first 11 months of 2007, compared with 521,000 over the same period of 2006.