In the course of doing an article on the politics of a Supreme Court confirmation fight, I started to wonder what the Senate’s current division of opinion on Roe v. Wade is. For what it’s worth, here’s what I’ve come up with.
Two years ago, Tom Harkin (D., Iowa) put the Senate on record by sponsoring a sense-of-the-Senate resolution backing Roe. It passed 52-46. Senators Biden and McConnell didn’t vote, but we can assume they’d have made it 53-47.
Since then, at least one anti-Roe vote have been replaced by a pro-Roe vote: Obama replaced Fitzgerald in Illinois. Three new members replaced senators with the same position on Roe: Coburn replaced Nickles in Oklahoma, Salazar replaced Campbell in Colorado, Vitter replaced Breaux in Louisiana. Four likely anti-Roe votes replaced four pro-Roe votes: Thune for Daschle in South Dakota, DeMint for Hollings in South Carolina, Burr for Edwards in North Carolina, and Martinez for Graham in Florida. The question mark on my list is Johnny Isakson of Georgia, who replaced anti-Roeer Zell Miller.
Depending on Isakson, then, I see either a 51-49 split in favor of Roe or a 50-50 division (51-50 if Cheney casts the tie-breaker). Unless I’ve missed someone.