All you need to know about the state of the race for the Senate at the moment is that an internal Republican poll has Don Bolduc down only two points in New Hampshire. Things could always change in the remaining weeks, but for now, the GOP data shows undecideds breaking toward the Republican by two to one and images of Democratic candidates cratering. Republicans have thrown the kitchen sink at Raphael Warnock over the years and have never seen the numbers for the personable pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church dip under water. Now, all of a sudden, he’s under water by eight points. This is happening all over the place, which is why you see Democrats running gauzy, positive bio spots in the final weeks, when those are usually reserved for the start of a race.
It seems that Biden’s unpopularity is finally catching up to Democrats like Warnock who had managed to achieve some significant separation. Things are still very close, but it’s not crazy to think that Republicans sweep the four battlegrounds everyone has focused on (Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania). This, even though Oz may still be very slightly behind, and even if Walker finishes ahead, there’s a question of whether he can get to 50 to avoid a runoff. Then, the next band of races come online — Arizona, where Masters has been gaining, and New Hampshire. And if there’s a real wave, maybe there’s a surprise in Washington, Colorado, or Connecticut. Nothing is guaranteed, but the range of plausible GOP pickups has undoubtedly expanded. At the moment, 50 would be a disappointing night and 55 would be a tremendous night.