The Corner

Shadegg v. Blunt (v. Cantor?)

I’m hearing that people tend to think Blunt has 50 commitments and Shadegg has 50 commitments. This is not coming from either campaign, but from someone following it closely whose judgment I trust. A lot of people think that every day that Blunt stays in the race is a good day for Shadegg. Shadegg will continue to gain commitments that he will probably keep even in the event that Blunt drops out, which represents the main threat to Shadegg’s campaign. Then, Cantor could get in, and he’s new blood who also has lots of experience in the whip operation. He would be a very strong candidate. But if Shadegg already has lots of commitments because Blunt has stayed in the race so long, or if a Blunt/Cantor switch is made so late that it seems an unfair switcheroo, Shadegg could still be in a strong position. In this connection, it is worth noting that members gave Shadegg very high marks for the graciousness with which he handled the majority leader race back at the beginning of the year, so there might be a sensitivity to him seeming to be treated unfairly (but that’s just speculation on my part).

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