This is what I’m picking up as of 4:45 pm: For leader, it will probably be Boehner’s to lose at this point. No one is going to blame him for what happened last night, and he has probably out-performed conservative expectations as a leader in certain respects. So Pence will have a tough fight. He will benefit from yearning for a fresh face, but, on the other hand, there are real doubts about what kind of support he has around the conference. For whip, Blunt is in a very precarious position. Probably no one who didn’t vote for him for majority leader last time is going to vote for him and there were probably votes he got for leader based on the (mistaken) notion he was going to win. He may lose those votes too. So his challenger Shadegg should be in a real strong position here. One wrinkle is that Blunt might realize the weakness of his position and not run, creating an opening for his deputy Eric Cantor, who is currently running Blunt’s campaign. If that happens, Cantor could be the one in a strong position, because he had the whip job wrapped up last time before Blunt lost for leader and stayed as whip. Obviously complictaed and fluid, but that’s how it looks right now….