In about 24 hours, we’ll start getting results on one of the most colorful House races in recent memory. A South Carolina GOP insider close to the Sanford campaign tells me that Republicans are hoping for turnout to be between 13 and 19 percent. If turnout is in that window, as it was in the primary, then Sanford will probably have a good night. The same insider says that if African Americans in the district vote at the same rate that they did in the November 2012 elections, “then there will be some troubles.”
There are obviously a plethora of other factors that could affect the results of the races. But those should be two interesting data points to keep an eye on.