Donald Trump easily dispatched Nikki Haley in today’s South Carolina primary, and the exit polls provide a good example of why it’s hard to sway voters on the basis of electability.
Haley has been arguing to Republican voters that because she is younger and freer of baggage, she is much more electable than Trump. The numbers support her case, as on average, she does better against Joe Biden than Trump does. Normally, she performs a few points better. Every once in a while, there’s a survey with her winning in a landslide, such as the recent Marquette one, showing her up 16 points over Biden and Trump only up two.
In reality, however, voters are not psephologists, soberly analyzing polling data before making their decisions in a completely unbiased manner. Instead, if voters like somebody, they’re likely to say that their candidate is the most electable.
Sure enough, such was the case in South Carolina. While 57 percent of primary voters, according to exit polls, said that Haley would be very or somewhat likely to beat Biden, 83 percent said the same about Trump.