The Corner

Split Scenario

I think it is now possible to envision a scenario in which Bush narrowly loses while Republicans gain seats in the House and the Senate (and gain governors too). In the House, that is mostly due to the redistricting in Texas. In the Senate, it’s mostly due to the South. Let’s say the Republicans lose Illinois and either Colorado or Alaska. If they win Georgia and both Carolinas, they’re up one. Nothing in this scenario precludes Kerry’s getting the Gore states plus, say, Ohio or even Florida. And it’s not a Senate sweep, either: it doesn’t assume Republican wins in Louisiana, South Dakota, or Florida.

Ramesh Ponnuru is a senior editor for National Review, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a senior fellow at the National Review Institute.

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