Josh Muravchik directs our attention to an op-ed by Tarek Heggy, who Josh describes as “an Egyptian businessman and intellectual, perhaps the most prolific liberal writer in the Arab world.” Heggy writes:
The core message of this article is that a premature American withdrawal from Iraq will lead to the toppling of the current regime in Jordan. Is that an exaggeration? Certainly not. It is actually an understatement. I personally believe that if failing to kill Osama bin Laden and al Molla Omar was the first step of the Jihadi Islam towards its goal, the lousy job in Iraq was the second step and a premature American withdrawal from Iraq will be the third and semi-final step JUST before the finale which will be the spread of both: Sunni Radical Islamism & The New Persian Empire (which will equally represent another facet of radical Islam). I predict that if such a premature American withdrawal from Iraq takes place in 2009, before 2015 Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Afghanistan & Pakistan (at least) will be in the hands of radical Islamists with at least two nuclear powers among these countries.
Muravchik has more thoughts and links at Contentions.