This is how people close to Bush are looking at it. If Bush holds all his states from last time, he goes up to 278 electoral votes because of population trends. So there is a (tiny) cushion there. The only red states Bush seems in some danger of losing at the moment are New Hampshire and Nevada. He is strong in two red states that appeared to be problems, Missouri and West Virginia. On the other hand, he is leading in blue states Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico. That’s why the map is tilted his way at the moment. He also has a chance in–in rough order–Michigan, Pennslyvania, Minnesota, and Oregon. For what it’s worth…