Republicans were pretty pleased to see this week’s CBS/New York Times poll, which had them six points up among likely voters and only one point down among women. There has been some speculation that foreign-policy concerns are bringing women back to the GOP. There is some evidence for that. But there is also some reason to doubt that we’re seeing much in the way of a gender-specific effect.
In 2006, the gender gap was four points: Men gave Republicans 47 percent of their House votes, women 43. In 2010, the gap was six points (55 percent of men and 49 percent of women chose Republican House candidates). In the CBS/New York Times poll, the gap is seven points (49–42).
So the gap isn’t shrinking. It’s just that Republicans are doing alright this year among men and women alike. Shrinking the gender gap turns out to be unnecessary for political success.