One reason why I’m dubious of the polls in Maryland is that in 2002 white Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich got 23% of the vote in predominantly black PG County — a crucial black middle class area — when he had Steele at the bottom of the ticket. Steele reportedly won a lot of black votes for Ehrlich because his victory put the first black politician in high office in Maryland. Now, at the top of the ticket Steele supposedly is only polling at 18% despite important endorsements from black Democratic politicians and a lot of anecdotal evidence that Steele is making serious inroads there. I don’t know if it’s a problem with the polls — i.e. cell phones don’t get called or African-Americans don’t want to say they’re supporting a Republican — but my guess is that Steele is dramatically underpolling in PG County. And if he does very well there, there’s a good chance he’ll deliver that upset. He’s alread cut Cardin’s lead in half in the last week or so, according to the Baltimore Sun.
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) has been telling a story for years. It’s a deeply romantic story about her parents and their young love, fraught with the familial bigotry of an earlier time. Here’s how she told it this week in a video she released in preparation for her 2020 run: My daddy always said he ... Read More
How will the Senate races break? We have less public polling to go on than in recent years, so answering that question is harder than ever. But the news is more optimistic for Republicans than it was a month ago. Waves and Breakers Four years ago, I projected in mid September that if “historical ... Read More
What has transformed the Democratic party into an anguished progressive movement that incorporates the tactics of the street, embraces maenadism, reverts to Sixties carnival barking, and is radicalized by a new young socialist movement? Even party chairman Tom Perez concedes that there are “no moderate ... Read More
Two Republican candidates for state office in Minnesota have been physically assaulted in recent days, leading prominent Republican lawmakers to caution their Democratic colleagues against employing inflammatory rhetoric. Republican state representative Sarah Anderson was punched in the arm last week after ... Read More
Democratic senator Kamala Harris joked about killing President Trump and members of his administration in a Thursday appearance on The Ellen Degeneres Show. “If you had to be stuck in an elevator with either President Trump, Mike Pence, or Jeff Sessions, who would it be?” DeGeneres asked Harris during a ... Read More
The last thing Democrats wanted to do in October 2018 was talk about the Clintons. Bill and Hillary Clinton aren’t just the past of the Democratic Party. The once-enormously-popular two-term president and the party’s 2016 standard-bearer are the living embodiments of two of the Democrats’ biggest ... Read More
The metaphors don’t get any better (or worse) than this: A van carrying Hillary Clinton, fresh from throwing her Me Too sisters under the bus this weekend, crashed into a parking-garage pillar on the way to a New Jersey campaign fundraiser Tuesday for beleaguered Democratic senator Bob Menendez. At her side was ... Read More