One reason why I’m dubious of the polls in Maryland is that in 2002 white Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich got 23% of the vote in predominantly black PG County — a crucial black middle class area — when he had Steele at the bottom of the ticket. Steele reportedly won a lot of black votes for Ehrlich because his victory put the first black politician in high office in Maryland. Now, at the top of the ticket Steele supposedly is only polling at 18% despite important endorsements from black Democratic politicians and a lot of anecdotal evidence that Steele is making serious inroads there. I don’t know if it’s a problem with the polls — i.e. cell phones don’t get called or African-Americans don’t want to say they’re supporting a Republican — but my guess is that Steele is dramatically underpolling in PG County. And if he does very well there, there’s a good chance he’ll deliver that upset. He’s alread cut Cardin’s lead in half in the last week or so, according to the Baltimore Sun.