The Corner

Subject: House list

Someone with better Democratic sources than I have e-mailed with some comments added about where Democrats think they are in these races I noted yesterday:

First tier of GOP vulnerables:

AZ-8: Randy Graf v. Gabrielle Giffords: OVER

CO-7: Rick O’Donnell v. Ed Perlmutter: It’s just a very tough district for Republicans. Beauprez won there, but he was an excellent candidate and still only eked out the seat in 2002. OVER

FL-16: Joe Negron v. Tim Mahoney: This could still possibly be doable the GOP. THEY AGREE NEGRON MIGHT WIN

TX- 22: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs v. Nick Lampson: Republicans still haven’t totally given up on this one. The internal polls have her within the margin of error and rumors have apparently been swirling around the district that Lampson will consider switching parties after the election. So this one is still bubbling a bit. THE MECHANICS OF WRITING IN SEKULA-GIBBS MAKE IT TOO TOUGH. (DIALING BY DIGITS STED OF HANDWRITING)

VA-2: Thelma Drake v. Phil Kellam: She hurt herself with a gaffe last week about Iraq being a vacation outside of a few hotspots. She could still survive, but hurt herself. THEY STILL THINK KELLAM’S DOWN A SMIDGE

Second tier:

*FL-22: Clay Shaw v. Ron Klein: Republican polls show Shaw up 4 or 5, but it’s very, very close.

*IN-9: Mike Sodrel v. Baron Hill: SODREL IS NO LONGER FIXED AN DIALATED; HE’S ACTUALLY SITTING UP AND TAKING FLUIDS.

*KY-4: Geoff Davis v. Ken Lucas: LUCAS IS SLIGHTLY DOWN, MAYBE THE ONE DISTRICT WHERE PELOSI MAKES A DIFFERENCE

NC-11: Charles Taylor v. Heath Shuler: Shuler’s conservatism has helped put him in to contention, though Taylor could still win of the basis of campaign cash. PUBLIC POLL HAS TAYLOR AT 26%!!!

NM-1: Heather Wilson v. Patricia Madrid: Its very close, but Wilson is now up with a TV ad that Republicans consider the most devastating of this cycle, simply reproducing a bit from a debate where Madrid couldn’t answer a question about whether she would raise taxes or not. THEY AGREE WILSON HAS COME BACK FROM THE DEAD.

*OH-1: Steve Chabot v. John Cranley: CHABOT’S IN MAJOR TROUBLE

LASTLY, YOU SEEM TO BELIEVE THAT CT R’s ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NOT SO SURE.

I HAD THOUGHT SHAYS WAS COOKED BUT HIS LATEST INTERNALS FROM OVER THE WEEKEND ACTUALLY HAVE HIM BACK UP. STILL, THE OTHER 2 ARE IN DEEP TROUBLE.

THEN THERE’S BARBARA CUBIN. A SMALL SAMPLE OF THE 44-40 POLL OUT SUNDAY WAS TAKEN AFTER SHE WAS MEAN TO THE GUY IN THE WHEELCHAIR. IT HAD HER DOWN 47-35. I’VE ALSO BEEN LATE TO BELIEVE THE HYPE ABOUT R INCUMBENTS IN UPSTATE NY, BUT THE SPITZER/HILLARY SWEEP COULD DRAG SOMEONE DOWN…

AND I AGREE THAT THE GOPERS PICK UP A SEAT IN GA.