The Corner

Subject: Michigan for Maine?

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Maine?  Is the campaign serious about this?  They are pulling resources out of Michigan in order to spend money on a state that has shown no hint of being competitive?  What this says to me is that McCain knows exactly what the map will look like and his camp really believes that the likeliest scenario is that they will take New Hampshire but lose Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico (all other states stay in the same camp as 2004) leaving us at a flat-footed tie.  McCain sending resources to Maine tells me that he’s hoping that he can break the tie by pulling off an upset in the upstate Maine-2nd, beat Obama there, and steal 1 of Maine’s 4 EVs (as Maine, like Nebraska, commits electors by CD with the statewide winner getting an additional 2).

There is simply no other explanation for sending any resources to Maine – since that single EV is meaningless in virtually any other electoral scenario that is even remotely plausible.

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