Signs point to U.S. and U.K. suspicion of an Iranian-directed terrorist plot in which an attack was imminent.
As Jim reports, the U.S. Defense Department on Sunday abruptly evacuated the dozen heavy bombers that were stationed in England at the Royal Air Force Base in Fairford (RAF Fairford). Signs point to high suspicion by American and British intelligence agencies that a terrorist attack on the base was imminent. The New York Times reports that the bombers were flown back to their American bases (a) even though some of them had only recently arrived and (b) before the refueling aircraft needed to support their evacuation flights had scrambled.
Notwithstanding denials by Iranian officials, the U.S. and British governments believe that Tehran is behind the suspected plot.
As NR has covered in recent days (see, e.g., here, here, here, here, and here), two Sundays ago, five men were arrested — British nationals in their early 20s — in what President Trump and Prime Minister Andy Burnham both described as a suspected Iranian plot against the air base. I’ve contended that, contrary to the president’s suggestion, it appears that the arrests resulted from law enforcement stumbling on a conspiracy at the eleventh hour rather than a long-term intelligence investigation. That is consistent with the fact that the suspects (who have not been publicly identified, consistent with British law) were released without charges the following day.
That said, the president’s fingering of Iran cannot be lightly dismissed: (a) The men were released on strict bail conditions, with British authorities maintaining that an aggressive counterterrorism investigation is ongoing; (b) PM Burnham subsequently confirmed that the Brits suspect Iran, too; (c) in July, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard officials warned the United Kingdom that its permitting the U.S. to use U.K. bases as platforms for attacking Iran in the ongoing war was deemed an act of war against Iran for which the IRGC would retaliate; and (d) the IRGC has a long history of using jihadist proxies in the West to execute attacks.
Another data point: In London on Thursday, British counterterrorism police arrested a 25-year-old Iranian national (with dual British citizenship) on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts in connection with the previous Sunday’s events near RAF Fairford. Interestingly, the thus-far unidentified man, who remains in custody, appears not to be one of the five suspects initially arrested and released the next day.
This continues to be worth a close eye, in particular: whether the recently arrested man is charged with terrorism crimes (I assume he is being held pre-charge, which British law allows for up to 14 days with close judicial monitoring), and whether any of the five men released last week is rearrested.