A new poll from Suffolk University shows incumbent Ohio GOP governor Mike DeWine cruising to reelection by 15 points. DeWine leads Democrat Nan Whaley by 53.8 percent to 39.2 percent — making Suffolk the third poll in a row to show DeWine with a lead that large.
The same survey, however, finds a dead heat in the U.S. Senate race, with Democrat Tim Ryan at 46.6 percent and Republican J. D. Vance at 45.6 percent. Vance now leads Ryan by 2.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, while DeWine leads Whaley by more than 15 points in the RCP average.
As I noted last month, there are many things that could explain the polling split between DeWine and Vance—including DeWine’s incumbency and his traditional GOP brand—but perhaps the most interesting thing about it is that the polling split is not explained by the issue of abortion:
Both DeWine and Vance are pro-life. DeWine is the governor who signed into law Ohio’s ban on abortion after a baby’s heartbeat is detectable about six weeks into pregnancy, with an exception for when the mother’s life or physical health is endangered but not when the pregnancy is the result of rape. If the abortion issue were a decisive factor for any given voter, it’s hard to see why that voter would cast a ballot against Vance and for DeWine.
Ever since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade at the end of June, political observers have been trying to detect how much the issue might help Democrats in November, and there have been a few data points suggesting that Republican prospects have been diminished over the last couple months. The congressional GOP’s 2.3-point lead over Democrats on the generic ballot has turned into a 0.5-point lead for Democrats according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls. Republicans have not met expectations in a couple of congressional special elections. And at the beginning of August, Kansas voters (by 59 percent to 41 percent) rejected a referendum that would have held a right to abortion is not protected by the state constitution.
A number of Senate GOP candidates have seen lackluster polling as well. But the strength of pro-life GOP governors in those same battleground states suggests that the Senate GOP’s diminished electoral prospects may have more to do with candidate quality than abortion politics. It’s not just Ohio. In Georgia, Republican governor Brian Kemp signed into law a heartbeat act that bans abortion after six weeks of pregnancy except in cases of rape, incest, or when the life of the mother is endangered. But Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams by 4.2 points in the RCP average of polls, while Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker (who has a lot of baggage) trails Democratic senator Raphael Warnock by 4.4 points.