The news, Tuesday: “The State Department accused Russia of failing to uphold the treaty obligations of New START, the only nuclear arms agreement between the two superpowers, that was signed in 2011. The State Department placed the blame on Moscow for blocking inspections of Russia’s nuclear stockpile and avoiding attempts to discuss the matter with American officials.”
Nearly one year after Vladimir Putin decided to launch an all-out invasion of Ukraine The fact that Russia is breaking its promises to the U.S. and defiantly ignoring treaties it signed is less than shocking,. But it’s easy to forget that Joe Biden spent a half a year touting an extension of the START treaty as a significant diplomatic breakthrough and a sign that he and his team could reach meaningful agreements with Russia.
President Biden, February 4, 2021: “By leading with diplomacy, we must also mean engaging our adversaries and our competitors diplomatically, where it’s in our interest, and advance the security of the American people. That’s why, yesterday, the United States and Russia agreed to extend the New START Treaty for five years to preserve the only remaining treaty between our countries safeguarding nuclear stability.”
President Biden, February 19, 2021: “The threat of nuclear proliferation also continues to require careful diplomacy and cooperation among us. We need transparency and communication to minimize the risk of strategic misunderstanding or mistakes. That’s why the United States and Russia, notwithstanding other competition, extended the New START Treaty for an additional four [five] years once I came — I was sworn in.”
President Biden, April 15, 2021: “in the earliest days of my administration, we were able to move quickly to extend, for five years, the New START Treaty, and maintain that key element of nuclear stability between our nations. That was in the interest of the United States, of Russia, and, quite frankly, of the world, and we got it done.”
President Biden, in a joint address to Congress, April 28, 2021: [The U.S. and Russia] “can also cooperate when it’s in our mutual interest. We did it when we extended the New START Treaty on nuclear arms, and we’re working to do it on climate change.”
A joint statement between President Biden and Vladimir Putin, June 16, 2021: “We, President of the United States of America Joseph R. Biden and President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, note the United States and Russia have demonstrated that, even in periods of tension, they are able to make progress on our shared goals of ensuring predictability in the strategic sphere, reducing the risk of armed conflicts and the threat of nuclear war. The recent extension of the New START Treaty exemplifies our commitment to nuclear arms control.”
Biden spent half a year patting himself on the back for a diplomatic breakthrough with Russia… that Moscow tossed aside the moment it became inconvenient.
Getting an authoritarian regime to sign or extend a treaty is the easy part. Getting them to keep their word is much harder; this is why Ronald Reagan adopted the Russian proverb, “trust, but verify.”
Biden’s naive belief that diplomatic engagement with Putin would yield significant agreements is particularly ironic, in light of his campaign trail boasts about of his unparalleled foreign policy experience. Biden insufferably contended he intimidated the former KGB officer: “Vladimir Putin doesn’t want me to be President. He doesn’t want me to be our nominee. If you’re wondering why — it’s because I’m the only person in this field who’s ever gone toe-to-toe with him.”
Biden enjoyed telling unverifiable stories about how he had gotten tough with Putin, right to his face.
To illustrate his emphasis on personality as a factor in foreign affairs, Biden recalled visiting Putin at the Kremlin in 2011: “I had an interpreter, and when he was showing me his office I said, ‘It’s amazing what capitalism will do, won’t it? A magnificent office!’ And he laughed. As I turned, I was this close to him.” Biden held his hand a few inches from his nose. “I said, ‘Mr. Prime Minister, I’m looking into your eyes, and I don’t think you have a soul.’ ”
“You said that?” I asked. It sounded like a movie line.
“Absolutely, positively,” Biden said, and continued, “And he looked back at me, and he smiled, and he said, ‘We understand one another.’ ” Biden sat back, and said, “This is who this guy is!”
And no doubt, many Americans wanted to believe that Biden was just the right guy out outmaneuver the ruthless dictator. Just days before Russia invaded, the New York Times’ Tom Friedman wrote, “if Vladimir Putin opts to back away from invading Ukraine, even temporarily, it’s because Joe Biden — that guy whose right-wing critics suggest is so deep in dementia he wouldn’t know Kyiv from Kansas or AARP from NATO — has matched every Putin chess move with an effective counter of his own.”
A bit more than a week later, Putin launched the largest land war in Europe since World War Two, setting off a humanitarian disaster and far-reaching effects in the world energy and food markets.
Biden’s desire for a “stable and predictable” relationship with Russia in his first year in office represented the triumph of hope over experience. The extension of the START treaty was never that big a deal – a preservation of the status quo in arena that was not high on Putin’s priority list. But Biden wanted to see himself as a master diplomat, so he walked around believing he had tamed Putin.