Support For Stem Cell Amendment Begins to Erode, Opposition Increases; Males Bail: In a referendum today, 10/24/06, 2 weeks to Election Day, Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative, has more support than opposition, but: with 18% of Likely Voters Not Yet Certain how they will vote on the Amendment, and with some demographic groups dramatically shifting their position on the Amendment, the contest is too volatile, and too unpredictable, to reliably forecast. Twelve days ago, in an identical SurveyUSA poll, Amendment 2 passed, 57% ‘Certain’ to vote Yes, 27% ‘Certain’ to vote No. Since then, ‘Certain Yes’ is down to 45%, ‘Certain No’ is up to 36%; a 30-point cushion on 10/12 is today a 9-point cushion. Among males, the Amendment had passed by 49 points on 10/12. Today, it passes by 6, a 43-point swing. Among voters age 35 to 49, opposition to the Amendment has doubled from a SurveyUSA poll on 9/14. Among affluent voters, the Amendment passed by 35 points on 10/12, passes by 2 points today, a 33-point swing. In Central MO, the Amendment had passed by 32 points, now is defeated by 6, a 38-point swing. SurveyUSA did not read the full text of the Constitutional Amendment to respondents. The exact language that SurveyUSA read to respondents appears in the table below.
And Talent is up, and leading.