Maybe the Trump campaign will radically improve its delegate-selection game or perhaps Cruz hurts himself in some fundamental way in coming weeks, but barring those things or some unforeseen event, it is going to be a Cruz-friendly crowd on the floor of the Republican convention in July. It is a mistake to think of delegates as insiders as we usually think of the term. Yes, some of them are state party officials, but many more of them are activists. Very few of them will be naturally inclined to share the hostility to Cruz of Washington and certain parts of the donor class. On top of this, the Cruz campaign is out there doing all it can to make sure supporters are selected as delegates. This is why if Trump is a good distance away from 1,237 — say, short 50 delegates or more (100 would be safer) — you have to favor Cruz at a convention.