Chuck Schumer is not really Senate majority leader. He may style himself as such, and enjoy the office’s plush perks, but history will not look back on him as a Lyndon Johnson or Robert Byrd, who were “Masters of the Senate” in their own right. The real power in the Senate — indeed, the real master of the Democratic caucus — is Byrd’s successor from West Virginia.
Most assessments of Joe Manchin label him a “conservative Democrat” who needs to win in deep-red West Virginia. Hence, he declined to support Biden’s big-ticket Build Back Better Act, killing the bill; nixed Neera Tanden’s nomination to head the Office of Management and Budget; and opposed loosening the Senate filibuster, which quashed Biden’s effort to federalize elections. Each time such major initiatives are defeated, Manchin is both blamed and excused — the latter to keep him in Democrats’ good graces for other fights. Losing Manchin from the caucus in a 50–50 Senate would cost them the chamber.
But Manchin has already thwarted many of the Democrats’ schemes. With the exception of the American Rescue Plan in the Biden administration’s early days, he has vetoed every major piece of partisan Democratic legislation in the Biden agenda that’s been brought to the floor. Consider Manchin’s vote last Wednesday against the Democrats’ attempt to codify Roe v. Wade into law. Manchin, who describes himself as “pro-life all my life,” voted against the bill despite expressing interest in “codifying” Roe in some form, because he said the bill was intent on “expanding” abortion. It’s exactly the kind of vote a Republican senator would take (if not for the exact reason), especially one representing a state like West Virginia — where 58 percent of voters believe abortion should be illegal in “all/most cases.” The state’s other senator, Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican, voted with him. The significance of the vote cannot be understated: On one of the most polarizing issues in America, which splits nearly neatly along party lines and is a rallying cry for the Democratic Party, Manchin balked at his caucus (virtually all of whom are pro-abortion) and went with the GOP.
Manchin has shown other Republican-friendly traits of late. Just last month, he weighed in on a Republican primary in West Virginia, endorsing GOP congressman David McKinley for the state’s second congressional district over Trump-backed Alex Mooney (redistricting forced an incumbent Republican face-off). He remained mum about the Democratic contest. Manchin was even treated to a $5,000-per-plate fundraiser in Florida hosted by GOP megadonor Nelson Peltz, which brought together other Trump-allied billionaires such as Steve Schwarzman and Bernie Marcus. They reportedly pressed Manchin to switch parties and run as a Republican in 2024 against Joe Biden.
There’s little chance of Manchin’s changing parties (though conservatives would likely welcome it). Being in the Democratic caucus while a Democrat is president certainly gives him a firm grip on the party. But on many of the issues that really matter, Manchin votes like a Republican. Thank goodness.