The “mid six figures” that the Biden campaign is going to spend on television ads in Texas is probably going to generate its worth in good press alone. Regardless of whether the Biden campaign genuinely thinks it can win Texas, spending $500,000 or so on TV ads in July will make Democrats feel even more confident, perhaps make some Republicans nervous or dispirited, and who knows, maybe spook the RNC or Trump campaign into spending money in the Lone Star State. It will probably spur at least one news cycle of “Joe Biden has huge momentum” stories that campaigns love and that will probably infuriate President Trump.
For most campaigns, a half-million in television advertising is a considerable expense, but the Biden campaign had roughly $82 million in cash on hand at the end of May. If Biden loses, it will not be because his campaign ran out of money.
Will Biden win Texas? Beto O’Rourke had every imaginable money and media messaging advantage imaginable in his Senate bid against Ted Cruz in 2018, and he fell short. He was close, but still short. Biden will not have those kinds of advantages over Donald Trump. But stranger things have happened, and 2020 has already proven to be a wildly and unnervingly unpredictable year.