Hawks left and right are presently agonizing about Ukraine. They believe that Russia’s subordination of a non-NATO state is a threat to the credibility of NATO. I don’t believe it is.
In the long run, if I were a NATO guy, I’d agonize far more about Germany. Former chancellor Angela Merkel somehow got it into her head that depending on the U.S. and U.K. for security, and depending on Russia for energy, somehow canceled each other out and added up to a dignified independence for Europe. This also allowed her government to pursue a policy of de-commissioning nuclear-power plants, in her attempt to fend off the Greens. This was a delusion.
What is the result?
Russia, using its power over energy prices via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, will have the kind of influence over German voters that the Chinese Communist Party seems to wield over NBA executives. German voters will increasingly view NATO cooperation as a threat to their household budgets. The U.S. does not defend Germany from war every winter, but the bills for heating come due that often.
In my view, this situation — far more than anything that happens along the Black Sea — is going to derange NATO politics for years to come.