Vance will likely run for president in 2028, but there are good reasons why he should consider waiting.
Over the weekend, we got the latest periodic story that cites anonymous sources claiming that Vice President JD Vance won’t run for president in 2028. While I question the report, I think there is a logic in his potentially waiting another four years.
To be clear, I believe Vance will ultimately run for many of the same reasons that Dan McLaughlin gave when another report of this kind cropped up a few months ago. The bottom line is that if you have the inside track to win one of the major parties’ presidential nominations — and in a two-party system, winning a nomination gives you close to a 50–50 chance of becoming president — you take your chances. Waiting another four years would introduce a lot more uncertainty into the equation.
The latest article, by the Daily Mail, the claims of which a Vance spokesperson has denied, isn’t particularly convincing. It claims that, with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s surprise resignation, Vance has become more isolated as a noninterventionist voice in the administration, and this might somehow make him abandon his presidential bid. It’s unclear to me why Vance would, a year from now, base such a momentous decision as to whether to run for president on what Gabbard decided to do. The supposed causal link doesn’t make sense.
Having said that, even assuming he’s the GOP nominee, Vance will have a heck of a challenge in a general election in 2028. Despite having served nonconsecutive terms, typically it has been hard for a party to retain the White House after a president from that party has served twice. The last success was in 1988 with George H. W. Bush. Before that, you have to go back to FDR and Harry Truman.
Also, Trump has typically had a tougher time getting Republicans elected when he isn’t on the ballot. Those Republicans tend to take on Trump’s negatives without having his star power. His passionate fan base does not turn out as well for other Republicans as they have for him.
Vance, in 2028, will be stuck. As Trump’s VP, he will be hard-pressed to distance himself from Trump or to build a distinct brand. If there is Trump fatigue, it will be hard for Vance to articulate how his vision would be different without risking a rupture with Trump or his supporters.
In 2032, Vance will be only 48 years old. Even if Democrats win in 2028, he would still benefit from high name recognition in any Republican primary. While senators or governors have to struggle to maintain relevance if they wait around for four years out of office, that isn’t really the case for somebody of Vance’s prominence. Remember, Hillary Clinton left the Obama administration after the 2012 election and still became the nominee in 2016; Joe Biden sat out 2016 and won the presidency four years later.
But more than anything, in 2032, Vance would be able to run as his own man and stake out his own vision for the country in a way that would be much harder for him to do now, as VP under Trump. In 2032, it will be much easier to make the case that, though he was honored to serve as VP, that doesn’t mean he agreed with every policy. In 2028, he will be forced to begrudgingly defend policies he might not agree with.
Again, it would be foolish to bet against Vance’s running in 2028. But there is a case for waiting.