It will convince nobody.
The Washington Post reports that Biden allies are preparing a really lame post-election spin:
One House Democratic strategist said that if Democrats hold 200 to 205 seats, they will consider it a good night. If the party ends up with 190 seats or less — a loss of 30 seats that would require several districts Biden carried by double-digits to flip — that would reflect a big red wave, said the strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
Biden allies are preparing to spin even a defeat as a win for the president, since President Barack Obama lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trump lost 40 in 2018, and Biden is not expected lose as many. But because Biden began his presidency with a much smaller majority than his predecessors, even modest losses could leave Democrats with fewer seats than the 193 they had in 2011.
Biden and his allies can make that argument, but it’s a dumb and unconvincing one. It amounts to bragging that Biden didn’t have any coattails in 2020; usually a president’s party enjoys gains in Congress with his election, but Republicans gained 14 seats the year Biden was elected. A House with 200 to 205 Democrats and 235 to 230 Republicans would be slightly better than average for the past few cycles that Republicans held the majority, and in the neighborhood of the balance of power from 2002 to 2006, when the Democrats had 205 and 201 seats. The contention that an outcome like that represents “a win for the president” is absurd. It’s bragging that your football team lost by three touchdowns instead of five.
Then again, this kind of desperate “things aren’t as bad as they look!” spin is increasingly common from Democrats in the Biden years. Back on July 4, 2021, the White House bragged on Twitter that the cost of a Fourth of July cookout was down 16 cents from the previous year. In December, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee tweeted out a chart showing that gas prices had declined two cents over the course of a week. In July, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre contended the U.S. was “stronger economically than we have been in history.”
This September, during an interview with 60 Minutes, Biden was left sputtering that inflation hadn’t gotten worse than the worst in 40 years and was “basically even.”
BIDEN: Well, first of all, let’s put this in perspective. Inflation rate month to month was just — just an inch, hardly at all,
PELLEY: You’re not arguing that 8.3 percent is good news.
BIDEN: No, I’m not saying it is good news. But it was 8.2 percent or — 8.2 percent before. I mean, it’s not — you’re ac — we act — make it sound like all of a sudden, “My God, it went to 8.2 percent.” It’s been –
PELLEY: It’s the highest inflation rate, Mr. President in 40 years.
BIDEN: I got that. But guess what we are. We’re in a position where, for the last several months, it hasn’t spiked. It has just barely — it’s been basically even.
The administration furiously insisted that two consecutive quarters of GDP did not represent a recession, and recently Biden insisted the economy is “strong as hell.” Americans shopping for groceries would likely agree with the hell part.
Biden and his team are always telling you that things aren’t as bad as they look, that no one is paying enough attention to what’s going right, that things are about to get better, inflation is temporary, the border is secure, crime is down, and the Afghan army is prepared to take on the Taliban. It is perhaps the perfect summary of this administration that they’re getting ready to insist that Democrats losing 20 to 25 House seats represents “a win for the president.”