There are rumblings against Biden among Democratic politicians.
Joe Biden is worried about a primary challenge, and probably helped further to head one off by his State of the Union address, both by surpassing modest expectations (he never dozed off or completely trailed off into mumbling nonsense) and by picking a fight with Republicans that excited Democrats. I continue to believe that Biden won’t be able to avoid someone challenging him, and probably one who is not just a complete fringe crank. Donald Trump, for example, was opposed in 2020 by two former governors and a former congressman, albeit all of them poorly funded and well past their sell-by dates as politicians. Biden is, however, doing what he needs to do in order to deter the stronger potential opponents from getting into the race.
Jonathan Martin of Politico looks at the rumblings against Biden among Democratic politicians, and the intense pressure to keep those rumblings private:
“Nobody wants to be the one to do something that would undermine the chances of a Democratic victory in 2024,” Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) explained to me. “Yet in quiet rooms the conversation is just the opposite — we could be at a higher risk if this path is cleared.”. . . The third-term Democrat from suburban Minneapolis, a gelato company executive before running for Congress, was one of the few lawmakers last year to say his party should turn to a new generation in the next presidential race. And since the Democrats’ unexpectedly strong midterm performance, scarcely few have followed suit, while every potential Biden successor has fallen in line behind his yet-to-be-announced candidacy. Meanwhile, the private conversations about the wisdom of nominating an octogenarian and despair over who could take Biden’s place have hardly subsided. “It’s fear, plain and simple,” Phillips explained of both the lack of Democratic officials calling for a new nominee and reluctance of other candidates to step forward. “People are focused on self-preservation and their aspirations.”. . .
My conversations with a variety of Democratic lawmakers and a number of the party’s governors, who were in Washington last week for National Governor’s Association’s winter meeting, bear out Phillips’s case that he has ample company in his view of Biden — but that they are as muted about it as he is loud. There was the senator who said few Democrats in the chamber want Biden to run again but that the party had to devise “an alignment of interest” with the president to get him off the “narcotic” of the office; there was the governor who mused about just how little campaigning Biden would be able to do; and there was the House member who, after saying that, of course, Democrats should renominate the president told me to turn off my phone and then demanded to know who else was out there and said Harris wasn’t an option.
As John McCormack details, there is already a divide between Republicans who are talking up the age issue and Democrats who are downplaying it. Republicans have a dual motive: Not only is age and generational change an effective line of attack against Biden, it offers a case for opposing Donald Trump without being seen to attack Trump personally or ideologically or validate critics of his presidency.
If we get into late 2023 or early 2024 and Biden visibly stumbles in some way that shakes Democratic confidence, there could be a real advantage to a credible candidate who is already declared, raising money, and on the primary ballots. That wasn’t enough in 1968 to make Eugene McCarthy the nominee when Lyndon Johnson abruptly dropped out, but the nomination system has changed a lot since then. If I was a Democrat, I’d at least want to ensure there is a Plan B for 2024 in case Biden becomes visibly incapable of carrying on at some juncture between now and two weeks before his 82nd birthday in November 2024.