The DeGrom Contract Is a Loss for Everyone

As a Mets fan, I’m terribly disappointed at Jacob deGrom’s signing a five-year, $185 million contract with the Texas Rangers. It seems that deGrom, who grew up in Florida, just wanted to get out of New York and didn’t want to wait for his retirement from baseball to do it. At least from public reports, he appears not to have given the Mets the opportunity to match the offer. The Mets’ championship window in a ferociously competitive division might remain open if they can sign some replacements for the rotation — ironically, their chief target may be Justin Verlander, who will be 40 next year and has missed almost the entirety of 2020 and 2021. But deGrom’s departure calls that all into question.

For a fan, this stings — Mets fans have always been good to deGrom — but it’s his life. Our the bitterness will fade over time and we’ll remember fondly his nine amazin’ years in a Mets uniform. What is more depressing is that the blow to the Mets is not even matched by a corresponding gain for the Rangers. They are at least as likely as not to regret this contract. DeGrom is worth $185 million to the Mets; he is not worth that to the Rangers. First, of course, a homegrown star will always be more beloved than a guy purchased on the market in mid career. Had deGrom struggled over the next few years at Citi Field, Mets fans would have recalled the good years; he will have no such goodwill to fall back on in Texas. These may seem sentimental things, but sentiment is the foundation on which the business of baseball is built.

Emotional considerations aside, deGrom is worth more to the Mets because the Mets are trying to win now and have rational reasons to believe they can do so. The team won 101 games this season. Its offensive core are all in their prime: Pete Alonso will be 28 in 2023, Francisco Lindor will be 29, Jeff McNeil will be 31, and Brandon Nimmo (whose contract the Mets hope to renew) will be 30. Moreover, the team has a bumper crop of offensive talent coming up in the farm system. DeGrom and Max Scherzer, when the two were healthy, had a combined 1–2 rotation punch of unmatched intensity. Not so the Rangers, who are coming off their sixth consecutive losing season and have played the past three seasons at a .390 winning percentage, good for a 63–99 record in a full schedule. They’re not an up-and-coming team: If anything, their core is a bit older than that of the Mets. Marcus Semien will be 32 next season, Adolis Garcia will be 30, Cory Seager will be 29, Jon Gray will be 31, and Martin Perez will be 32. This is as good as it gets for the core of the Rangers roster, and it is not that good.

For a team trying to win it all now, deGrom can be a tremendous asset, if a high-risk one. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball over the past five years, with a 2.05 ERA, fielding-independent pitching of 2.14, 193 ERA+, and preposterous per-nine-innings rates of 6.0 hits, 0.7 home runs, 1.8 walks, and 12.2 strikeouts. These are cartoon numbers. Even at less than full strength, he gutted his way through the Mets’ lone playoff win this year, facing elimination against the Padres. He’s 4–1 with a 2.90 ERA in his career in the postseason. If healthy, he should continue to be the best pitcher in the game for another year or two, and remain effective for the remainder of the contract. The downside, however, is that if: DeGrom will be 35 next season, and he’s been healthy enough to start just 26 times over the past two seasons. Like Pedro Martinez after 2000, he seems undone, in Icarian fashion, simply by his body’s being unable to sustain how hard he throws. Add in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and deGrom hasn’t thrown 100 innings in a season since 2019. For a win-now team with Steve Cohen’s bottomless wallet, the prospect of some lost seasons at $40 million a pop down the road might be a worthwhile trade-off for bringing a championship to Flushing for the first time in 37 years. But for the Rangers to spend that money in pursuit of finishing third?