Christian Schneider says that it is a “delusion” that nominating Ron DeSantis instead of Donald Trump in 2024 would break Trump’s hold over the party or “rid itself of the Trump stench.” Instead, he contends, the GOP is “the burning rubble of a political party” — implying that we should simply accept the conditions of Democratic rule and Republican self-sabotage as the permanent states of American politics and criticize any Republican who is taking the opportunity of the 2022 midterm failures to break with Trump. This is a common refrain among those who argue against any practical plan to deny “the former guy” the nomination. In addition to being an unduly defeatist view, it misses several important dynamics and fundamentally misunderstands the history of American political parties in general and the Republicans in particular.
First, Schneider says that DeSantis’s poll standing is overrated: “If you think popular candidates in December of a midterm election year are locks to be the party’s nominee in two years, just ask presidents Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, and Rudy Giuliani.” But he does not apply any similar skepticism to the poll standing of Trump, who will turn 78 years old in June of 2024 and sounds increasingly like a record stuck in a single groove. Only once in its history has the Republican party renominated the loser of a prior election — when the party concluded that Tom Dewey was a rising man who had made enough headway against the entrenched three-term incumbent FDR in 1944 to give Dewey another shot in 1948 (it went poorly). Republicans did turn to Richard Nixon eight years after he lost in 1960, but only after trying something completely different in 1964 and losing by a much larger margin. As for Jeb, he lost in good part because he had the problem Trump has now: He was seen as yesterday’s news and associated with the party’s defeats in 2006-08. One might just as well compare Trump with Hillary Clinton in 2008; she was the assumed restoration candidate, but her party went with a new face. Trump is far from politically beaten, and I do not discount the obstacles that stand in the way of beating him, but it is very premature to just bend the knee to Trump now.
Second, Schneider raises the familiar specter of Trump throwing a colossal tantrum if defeated and possibly running a third-party bid. He will undoubtedly take losing poorly and claim he really won or was robbed, but going to that well again against a fellow Republican is a game with diminishing returns. Trump has maintained the third-party threat for years to intimidate fellow Republicans, but getting on the ballot is a lot of work, requiring a lot of money and organization, with no prospect for success and high odds of humiliating defeat and failure. While Trump is certainly not above self-defeating actions, there is a limit to how much effort he is willing to put into them besides raging with his mouth, and it is questionable who would fund it or devote themselves to the required labors. Moreover, Schneider ignores the big, glaring reason why Trump might have a powerful incentive to want Republicans to recapture the White House behind someone who views Trump with more gratitude than vindictive bitterness.
Third, while the party has never had a former leader like Trump, Schneider dramatically underestimates the power and influence that a new party leader would have in refashioning the party in his own image – especially if that leader is as disciplined and strong-willed as DeSantis, who currently rules the Florida Republican party with an iron rod. Americans love a winner; if DeSantis beats Trump, people will flock to his banner in order to beat Joe Biden and the Democrats. If DeSantis does that, Trump will lose the most powerful argument for his continuing influence: that he is the only Republican who can win a national election. The most cynically self-interested parts of the party and the movement — from D.C. careerists to radio talkers who follow their audience — will fall in with the new man, just as they made the dizzyingly swift and drastic transitions from Nixon to Reagan or Bush to Trump. Consider how many people run around today railing against “neocons” and “forever wars” who were, 15 years ago, swaggering supporters of George W. Bush, or how many people became free marketers just a few years after backing Nixon and his wage-and-price-controls.
The effect of disciplined, victory-oriented new leadership is likely to be especially apparent in how the party recruits candidates and throws its weight into their nomination. Even with Trump living in his state, DeSantis is able to run a state party that looks very different from the national party and attains very different results. He has remade it into something that looks a lot more like DeSantis than it does like past Florida governors such as Jeb or Charlie Crist.
The Republican Party remains the only vehicle in American politics for conservative voters, conservative policy, or conservative principles. We should not surrender it without a fight, including not overestimating the obstacles in our path.