According to a new national survey from Quinnipiac University polling out this morning, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren is two points ahead of former vice president Joe Biden in the Democratic presidential primary.
The poll shows Warren with 27 percent support among Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, while Biden is at 25 percent. Farther behind are Vermont senator Bernie Sanders (16 percent); South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg (7 percent); and California senator Kamala Harris (3 percent).
This is a big shift from Quinnipiac’s most recent previous poll of the Democratic field, released late last month, which had Biden in a large lead at 32 percent, with Warren trailing at 19 percent and Sanders at 15.
The new survey suggests a substantial increase Democratic voters’ desire for an alternative to Biden, especially when compared to Quinnipiac’s results in its previous poll. In August, the combined support for Warren and Sanders equaled 34 percent, just a bit more than Biden’s 32 percent. But in today’s survey, Warren and Sanders combine for 53 percent of the field, and Biden has dropped significantly to 25 percent.
But even though Sanders consistently appears in polls as the third-place option, it’s probably more realistic to view the Democratic primary as a two-way race between Biden and Warren. And Quinnipiac’s data today are not the first to suggest that Warren is cementing herself in contention for the frontrunner spot.
Recent polls in the four states to hold a Democratic primary or caucus in February 2020 show Warren climbing too. Biden maintains a whopping lead in South Carolina, but Warren is slightly ahead in New Hampshire according to a Monmouth University poll released yesterday, and surveys from both Iowa State University and the Des Moines Register show the Massachusetts senator ahead in polling of likely Iowa caucus voters.