The Iowa caucus is the latest evidence that Democrats have an enthusiasm problem. Democrats hoped that turnout would equal or surpass 2008 numbers. They didn’t. Turnout seems to have been about the same as in 2016. The reason is simple. None of the Democratic candidates is as exciting as Barack Obama was when he arrived on the scene.
Harry Enten of CNN points to another sign of low Democratic enthusiasm. When Enten studied the results of this cycle’s special elections, he found that “Democrats are only outperforming their 2016 baseline by an average of about 2 points, a drop of 8 points from the 2017 to 2018 period.”
Enten also notes that an enthusiasm gap has emerged in polling data. It favors Republicans: “The 7-point lead on the extremely or very enthusiastic question” that Democrats enjoyed in 2018 “has turned into a 7-point Republican lead on enthusiasm.” Now you know why Nancy Pelosi is so upset.