A fictitious poll meant throw off the public was closer to reality than real polls conducted by real firms using real people.
What can explain a Democrat becoming Mississippi’s next senator? As with other stupefying, reality-altering events, it helps to look to fiction.
A “poll” conducted in mid-October by Wedgewood Polls showed Democratic Senate challenger Scott Colom just four points behind Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. Wedgewood had Hyde-Smith receiving 52 percent of the vote and Colom 48 percent, just a few weeks away from the election.
On October 20 — just as I wrote ‘Can Democrats Pull Off a Mississippi Miracle?’ citing the poll — it was discovered that Wedgewood Polls was a completely fake polling company, created to discover, according to the group, “How easy is it for an entirely fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously, and expose how little scrutinization exists in media and public commentary?”
Today, the fake poll happens to also be the most accurate predictor of Scott Colom’s shocking performance. Wedgewood had him receiving 48 percent of the vote; as of today, he has 49 percent. And while the fake poll had Hyde-Smith at 52 percent — four points off her share of 48 percent as of this writing — no other public poll had Colom even sniffing 48, much less 49 percent of the vote.
Two polls conducted in August for the Colom campaign had him receiving 40 and 41 percent of the vote, respectively. Another poll in late October — also partisan and for his campaign — had Colom at 40 percent and Hyde-Smith at 43 percent.
To reiterate: The fake poll was one point off Colom’s actual share of the vote.
That is the scale of the blue wave that swept across America on Tuesday: A fictitious poll meant throw off the public was closer to reality than real polls conducted by real firms using real people.