The GOP’s dismal showing in the midterms saw Republican hopefuls across the country lose (seemingly) gettable purple states and districts. As Jim Geraghty noted this morning, “independents — 31 percent of the electorate this year — narrowly split in favor of Democrats, 49 percent to 47 percent.” And Politico reported that, as of this morning, Democrats had carried more of the 71 House races that the publication had “rated as likely to be narrow wins” – i.e., “Lean Democrat,” “Toss-Up,” or “Lean Republican.” Democrats carried 22 of the “Toss-Up” districts, whereas Republicans carried four — a shocking upset in what was supposed to be a red-wave year.
But the GOP is leading six of the remaining ten “up for grabs” races that are yet to be called, according to Politico. See if you can recognize a trend in the states that these races are situated in:
Arizona-01 (Pre-Nov. 8 POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Republican): GOP Rep. David Schweikert is trailing Democrat Jevin Hodge by around 2,500 votes.That’s after Schweikert made gains late Saturday in Maricopa County, which includes the entire district. He’ll need the state’s trend toward a “red shift” later in the count to continue.
Arizona-06 (Lean Republican): Republican Juan Ciscomani holds only a narrow lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel — about 1,400 votes — in a race that has narrowed significantly since Election Day, including on Saturday, when Engel halved her raw-vote deficit. It’s not clear whether the remaining votes in Pima County (Tucson) will help Engel close the gap completely.
California-13 (Lean Republican): This one looks like a nail-biter: Republican John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 84 votes as of Saturday afternoon, with only 61 percent of the ballots tallied, according to The Associated Press.
California-22 (Toss Up): Is it déjà vu for Rep. David Valadao? The California Republican was so far ahead of his Democratic opponent on election night in 2018 that The AP declared him the winner — only to retract the call when Valadao fell behind weeks later. This time, Valadao (who eventually returned to Congress after winning in 2020) leads Democrat Rudy Salas by 5 points, but that’s already down from 8 points on Tuesday night.
California-41 (Lean Republican): GOP Rep. Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by about 2,100 votes in the Inland Empire, but it’s not clear how the late-counted ballots will break.
California-47 (Lean Democratic): Democratic Rep. Katie Porter leads Republican Scott Baugh by 3 percentage points, as late-arriving ballots in Orange County have helped extend what was an extremely narrow lead on Election Day.
California-49 (Toss Up): Democratic Rep. Mike Levin has opened up a 5-point lead over Republican Brian Maryott in a race that’s close to moving into the Democrats’ column.
Colorado-03 (Likely Republican): GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert is up by about 1,100 votes over Democrat Adam Frisch. Frisch needs to eat into Boebert’s advantage in the final ballots to have a shot to surpass her in the likely recount, which will occur if the two candidates finish within half a percentage point of each other (Boebert currently leads by 0.4 points).
New York-22 (Toss Up): Republican Brandon Williams is nearly 4,000 votes ahead of Democrat Francis Conole, who is hoping that still-to-be-counted absentee ballots in Syracuse are enough to push him over the top.
Oregon-06 (Toss Up): Democrat Andrea Salinas is 4,000 votes ahead of Republican Mike Erickson, with 79 percent of precincts reporting.
With the exception of the purple — though seemingly increasingly blue — Arizona, the GOP’s path to a House majority now lies in surprisingly positive showings in deep-blue states like Oregon, New York, Colorado, and California. And if Republicans do take back the House, it will have been on the backs of their strong performance in New York, in particular, which was one state where the red wave did materialize: Republicans improved on their 2020 margins in every county in the state, and while they “fell short of ousting Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), Republicans successfully toppled Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, and flipped several other Democratic toss-up races in the 3rd, 4th and 19th Congressional Districts,” the Hill reported yesterday. It’s not the path to a House majority that most Republicans expected, but it looks like it’s the one they’re going to get.