At Donald Trump’s direction late last week, Vice President JD Vance reached out yet again to representatives of the Iranian regime. With the administration warning that high-tempo combat operations could once again start neutralizing Iranian targets at any point after the polls close on November 3, the stakes are high. Despite the intense economic pressure on the regime, however, the security establishment in Tehran remains as committed as ever to defying the United States.
Indeed, according to Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref, it’s the American position that has softened. “Our enemy failed to achieve any of its objectives in the last two wars,” he said in a statement. He added that “the messages conveyed to Iran through intermediaries point to an acknowledgment of our victory.”
It’s unclear what concessions from the American side led Aref to this sanguine assessment, but perhaps Washington is in a giving mood. After all, the Iranians, too, have not been entirely recalcitrant. According to reports, the Iranian delegation in Qatar negotiating on the regime’s behalf proposed a rubric that would allow the regime to withdraw its threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz over just two days as opposed to several weeks. That’s the kind of selfless beneficence that just might bring a tear to your eye.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reportedly engaged in productive talks with Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. One unnamed official told CBS News that the Israeli prime minister is attempting to “persuade Trump to launch a quick but extensive air campaign” against Iran, although Trump has not yet “made a decision” one way or the other.
If the president is genuinely looking for an off-ramp that would obviate the need for another “short, intense military campaign” against Iran, he’s getting no help from the Iranian side. And if the only other side of this debate in Trump’s ear is the Israelis and their American allies, renewed hostilities may be imminent.