For the most part, Joe Biden’s approach to navigating the politics of Israel’s defensive war against Hamas has drawn high marks from Israel’s supporters. In rhetorical terms, Biden’s refusal to countenance the arguments made by advocates for Israeli surrender in the face of terrorist aggression has been steadfast. Even the administration’s apparent criticism of Israel’s conduct — lobbying for a lower-intensity campaign in Gaza — has been written off as kabuki (a lower-intensity phase was always going to follow the initial ground invasion). But Biden’s boosters also fear the ineluctable political logic that might one day compel the president to abandon Israel even against his better instincts. Their trepidation is prudent.
“In meetings he held in Israel last week, the secretary of state [Antony Blinken] argued that the administration itself is under pressure from members of Congress and the progressive wing of his party,” Israel Hayom’s Ariel Kahana reported on Monday. Blinken’s public remarks during a stop in Tel Aviv lend credence to the notion that the White House is losing its tolerance for the conduct of Israel’s campaign against Hamas. New York Times reporter Edward Wong drew the only available conclusion from the marked “change in tone” he’s witnessing from administration officials:
Anonymous US officials have briefed reporters recently that Israel isn’t complying with US requests. It’s a change in tone. See the stories from the Blinken trip. The aides are messaging to Israel, but it also looks like an effort to distance Biden from Gaza in an election year.
— Edward Wong (@ewong) January 14, 2024
It does look like that, doesn’t it? And why shouldn’t we expect that shift in emphasis to continue, putting Israel on the back foot?
If the polling is to be believed, Joe Biden’s reelection prospects are moribund, in part, because of the dissatisfaction with his performance among core democratic constituencies — younger voters, in particular. Biden’s polling took a notable turn for the worse in the wake of his support of Israel’s actions following the October 7 massacre. Democratic political professionals soothe themselves with the notion that these dissatisfied young voters are not converted into Trump voters, and they will rally to the president after a protracted, polarizing general election campaign. But if they don’t — if their commitment to nihilism in the face of terror extends to domestic political outcomes, too — Democrats will panic.
It won’t be hard for Joe Biden’s handlers to rationalize throwing Israel under the bus if it advances their political objectives. They’ll tell themselves that their own hold on power is ultimately better for geopolitical stability — and, therefore, better for Israel — than Donald Trump’s restoration. The modest costs associated with placating the malcontents in the streets are outweighed by their benefits.
If that flawed logic prevails within Biden’s inner circle, it would be a grievous error. The people besieging the White House cannot be appeased. The attempt to do so risks courting a modest demographic at the risk of angering a far larger host. Support for Israel’s cause is a majoritarian issue. As of last week, Gallup found that about 40 percent of voters think Biden is doing the “right amount” to support Israel, while another roughly 40 percent don’t think he’s doing enough. Biden would be foolish to align himself with the minority position in an 80–20 proposition.
And yet, it’s not hard to imagine a circumstance in which Biden feels compelled to take that risk. Indeed, as Biden’s polling woes mount, it’s increasingly hard to see how he avoids it.