The race is still his to lose, but high early-voter turnout tells an interesting story.
Much is being made of indications that New York City’s typically predetermined off-year mayoral elections will be a hot contest this year. This is suggested by the unusually high early-voter turnout.
“Data showed 164,190 voters cast ballots Saturday and Sunday,” the Gothamist reported on Monday. “That’s five times higher than the first weekend of early voting four years ago, when Eric Adams, then the Democratic nominee, was heavily favored to become mayor.” In addition, the number of voters under 35 in the early voting pool is down substantially from 2021.
There is clearly a high level of interest in what will likely be the most competitive mayoral race in decades. Although Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani commands the support of an enthusiastic minority of New Yorkers, they are a minority. If the election is a higher-turnout affair — particularly one in which younger voters make up a smaller share of the electorate — that’s not good news for the Mamdani campaign.
Against this backdrop, Suffolk University has dropped its final poll of the race. In its survey, the pollster found Mamdani’s support declining, albeit by a paltry 1 percent, from its September survey. That movement is rendered more significant by the marked increase in Andrew Cuomo’s support. The poll, which was conducted almost entirely after Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race and backed Cuomo, seems to indicate that most of the mayor’s supporters have migrated into Cuomo’s camp.
Republican mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa has also seen his support grow by two points. Between Sliwa’s 11 percent support and Cuomo’s 34 percent, Mamdani’s 44 percent backing starts to look less impressive — even beatable. Indeed, although Suffolk finds that Mamdani commands the support of three-quarters of voters aged 34 and younger, his support slips into the 30s among voters aged 45 and older.
None of this is to say that you should harbor any hope for a desirable outcome in New York City’s mayoral race. It is still Mamdani’s to lose. But the Democratic Socialist candidate’s campaign engines have stalled, and it is starting to lose altitude.