This address should make one question Putin’s sanity.
The Russian government has formally recognized Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, two sections of Ukraine that have been subjected to years of fighting between Russian- and Ukrainian-backed militias. This recognition amounts to the Russian government giving itself permission to intervene to protect these breakaway nations in an undisguised way.
But just as distressing was the speech Vladimir Putin gave to announce it to the world. Earlier today I wrote a piece that in one line offhandedly suggested that Putin was a rational actor. I repent of having written it. If that ranting, grandiose, aggrieved wreck of a speech was delivered sincerely, then Putin has addled himself with his own propaganda, is now unpredictable, and will likely drive his nation and others to a disaster. I grant that there may be insincerity in it as well. But reports of his meeting with French president Emmanuel Macron suggest that Macron was subjected to six hours of this same ranting and could never bring Putin down to what Europeans see as the brass tacks: the Minsk agreements, the withdrawal of Russian irregulars, and a series of next steps, including diplomatic talks on the long-term security arrangements of Europe.
His speech featured the Russian litany of post–Cold War grievances, namely the broken promise not to expand NATO. “They try to convince us over and over again that NATO is a peace-loving and purely defensive alliance, saying that there are no threats to Russia. Again they propose that we take them at their word. But we know the real value of such words,” he said. More disconcerting, he suggested that the expansion of NATO was meant to “serve as a forward springboard for the strike.”
Putin attacked the very nationhood of Ukraine, saying it was entirely a product of Soviet statebuilding:
As a result of Bolshevik policy, Soviet Ukraine arose, which even today can with good reason be called “Vladimir Ilyich Lenin’s Ukraine.” He is its author and architect. This is fully confirmed by archive documents. . . . And now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call decommunisation. Do you want decommunisation? Well, that suits us just fine. But it is unnecessary, as they say, to stop halfway. We are ready to show you what real decommunisation means for Ukraine.
This was all part of his argument that Ukraine “never had a tradition of genuine statehood.” While it is true that Ukraine’s existence as an independent state is only recent, the peoplehood of the Ruthenians in western Ukraine goes back centuries and distinguished them as members of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. And nations — peoples — really do emerge with a full historical consciousness and a coherent-enough story from exactly the kind of events Putin describes. But it’s not for me to argue with Putin.
Putin said that sanctions discussed by the Americans would likely be put on Russia for any pretext, whatever happens in Ukraine. Most ominously he referred to lists of Ukrainians who were fomenting violence against Russia-allied people in Ukraine, and dragging Ukraine away from Russia, saying that these men would be brought to justice.
“I want to say clearly and directly that in the current situation, when our proposals for an equal dialogue on fundamental issues have actually remained unanswered by the United States and NATO, when the level of threats to our country is increasing significantly, Russia has every right to take retaliatory measures to ensure its own security. That is exactly what we will do.”
This speech should make one question Putin’s sanity, to wonder if his grip on himself or on his own regime is not firm.
With the West having only barely and hesitantly contemplated sanctions, with no further ideas for escalation, it seems to me that the talking is all over, and this crisis will now play out in events. Anyone telling you how this will go is a fool. Now is the time that nations like Poland may step forward with ideas for how Europe can maintain security in its own backyard. Meanwhile, we watch, and pray for our friends in Ukraine.