I don’t think people realize it yet, but the outcome of this election may have hinged on New York.
New York Democrats got greedy and submitted a gerrymandered map this year that brazenly violated anti-gerrymander rules put into the state’s constitution in 2014. The appeals court struck it down and appointed a non-partisan special master to draw new Congressional districts.
“The enactment of the congressional and senate maps by the legislature was procedurally unconstitutional, and the congressional map is also substantively unconstitutional as drawn with impermissible partisan purpose, leaving the state without constitutional district lines for use in the 2022 primary and general elections,” the Court of Appeals ruled, adding, “we are left in the same predicament as if no maps had been enacted. Prompt judicial intervention is both necessary and appropriate to guarantee the People’s right to a free and fair election.”
This scrambled New York politics. People in longtime safe districts were running against colleagues from long-term safe districts. Money raised to run in one district had to go to another.
On the previous map drawn by Democrats in the legislature, it is unlikely Republicans could have managed more than five wins. The old map was projected to provide a path for Democrats to win up to 22 seats. But, helped by the surprisingly strong candidacy of Lee Zeldin at the top, New York Republicans are likely to walk away with eleven wins on the map drawn by the special master, with Democrats only winning 15.