There are a couple of red state U.S. Senate races that ought to be at least competitive, and so far, they simply don’t appear to be much of a ...
Back in 2018, President Trump’s job approval rating was around 43 percent, but despite doing badly in U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative elections, Republicans picked up two seats in the U.S. Senate. A lot of senators from red states were up for reelection that year, and Republicans defeated Democrats or previously Democrat-held seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, while losing GOP-held seats in Arizona and Nevada.
The 2026 cycle is different, and what really ought to worry Republicans is that there are a couple of red states that ought to be at least competitive, and they simply don’t appear to be much of a race. Roy Cooper is going to walk into the U.S. Senate without breaking a sweat in North Carolina. There’s little sign that Mike Collins is giving incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff much to worry about in Georgia.
Then there are the red state races that look uncomfortably close.
The Iowa Senate race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek looks neck-and-neck, as does the race in Ohio between Republican appointed senator Josh Husted and Democratic former senator Sherrod Brown. And of course, it’s been a while since Ken Paxton led any poll in Texas over James Talarico.
Now, the flip side of the coin is that there are some glimmers of good news for Republicans in some blue states. The New Hampshire Senate race between former senator Republican John Sununu and Democratic congressman Chris Pappas looks competitive. Michele Tafoya is closer than you might expect against Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, never an easy state for Republicans.
I think Republicans are a little too bullish on Mike Rogers in Michigan, but he’s keeping it close in a state that hasn’t sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1994. Finally, while I know the polls have Troy Jackson narrowly ahead of incumbent GOP senator Susan Collins, history suggests Collins can dramatically outperform her polling numbers.
Still, if you’re a Democrat, you have to feel pretty good about where you are in mid-September. Early voting starts at the end of the week in three states.