When you see California governor Gavin Newsom making videos about joining the Trump social-media network Truth Social, you know Newsom either has way too much free time on his hands, or he wants to position himself as one of the Democrats most eager to fight Donald Trump.
Clearly, Newsom has ambitions that go beyond the governor’s mansion in Sacramento, and he will be term-limited if he is reelected this November — which is extremely likely.
As Blake Hounshell wrote in the New York Times, “Gavin Newsom keeps picking exactly the kinds of fights that presidential candidates like to pick.”
The speculation about an unlikely Hillary Clinton comeback, discussed below, illuminates the odd state of the Democratic Party, theoretically in a position of strength at the moment, but a party increasingly gripped by a sense of desperation and despair over the coming midterms and beyond.
Joe Biden needs detailed written instructions to enter a meeting and say hello; he turns 80 years old shortly after this year’s midterms and would be running for reelection as an 82-year-old.
Van Jones summarized Democrats’ concerns succinctly on CNN: “I think people just looking, honestly, I think a lot of Democrats are like, if this guy is ready to go we’re behind him but if he’s not ready to go, you should let us know. I think that’s what’s going on.”
Ordinarily, if the president was incapable of handling the rigors of another presidential campaign, the Democrats would just nominate Vice President Kamala Harris, but she currently has a job approval rating of 35 percent — and this isn’t a blip; she’s been underwater since last July. Nominating Harris looks like an extremely risky gamble for Democrats.
Despite the high hopes of Pete Buttigieg fans, the Democratic Party is unlikely to quickly unify behind the secretary of transportation; what would Buttigieg do, run on his record of tackling the supply-chain crisis? (The news a few days ago: “Port bottlenecks that have tied up U.S. supply chains are spreading from the docks to the country’s freight rail networks, raising costs and adding new shipping complications for importers trying to manage the flow of goods.”) The Biden cabinet does not have any other unifying heir apparent.
If you’re a Democratic governor with a well-developed, wealthy donor base and with national ambitions . . . why not hang around, keep your name in the news nationwide, and see what happens?
A few days ago, Politico noticed that “Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker trekked to New Hampshire last weekend to rally Democrats for abortion rights. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy’s allies launched a federal super PAC and a nonprofit, which have aired $2 million in TV ads about Murphy’s inflation-fighting efforts.”
The odds of Biden either not running for another term or being incapable of running for another term are better than for a normal president. The odds of Harris either not running for another term or being incapable of winning the nomination are better than for a normal vice president. Democratic governors may say they intend to fully support Biden and Harris in 2024. But their actions suggest otherwise.