I hate to have to state the obvious, but the reality is that the only real takeaway from the Miami debate is that there is still not a genuine contest for the Republican presidential nomination.
We can discuss who won and who lost, who may have benefitted relative to other candidates on the stage, and the big moments (the most memorable being Nikki Haley calling Vivek Ramaswamy “scum” for hitting her on the fact that her daughter was on TikTok). But the bottom line is that debates are not meaningful if they’re merely exhibition sparring contests. They only matter if they change the trajectory of the race. With Donald Trump up over 40 points nationally and 30 points in early primary states, it would have taken something major for anything to truly shake up the dynamic, and nothing remotely major occurred. If Haley or Governor Ron DeSantis gain a few points following the debate, Trump will still have a commanding lead just over two months before actual voting starts.
Once again, Trump benefitted from his decision to ditch the debates by depriving them of meaning and denying opponents the chance to create moments that could have shaken up the race. There has been no downside for him, because rivals barely bring up his absence, and voters do not punish him for ducking.
Crazy things have happened in politics, so it’s foolhardy to say that it’s impossible for him to lose. But at this moment it’s difficult to conceive of a set of circumstances that could occur that would result in somebody other than Trump emerging as the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.