A few follow-up thoughts to yesterday’s Morning Jolt . . .
Four years ago, in the 2022 midterm elections, 112 million votes were cast in total. So far, more than 37 million votes have been cast in the 2026 midterm elections. While we don’t know what the total will be this time around, it’s likely that about a third of the votes have already been cast.
There are Democrats out there who believe that President Trump will use (1) U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to harass voters at the polls, (2) police or federal agents to prevent people from voting, or (3) the National Guard to seize ballots. I don’t have a crystal ball, so I cannot say with certainty that nothing irregular will happen between now and when the polls close on Election Day. But I find it highly unlikely that these scenarios will come to pass, certainly on a large scale.
For what it’s worth, the Department of Homeland Security says it is not planning ICE operations targeting polling locations. Yesterday’s Jolt laid out what police are permitted to do and not do at polling places; the president doesn’t have authority over local police forces, anyway. In August, General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed in writing that the U.S. military has no plans to deploy federal troops or federalized National Guard members to polling places during the midterm elections, and no plans to seize ballots, voting machines, or other election-related materials.
I know that various critics of the president believe that he wants to intimidate legal immigrants, minorities, and other Americans who he believes are likely to vote for Democrats. I wonder if the hyperbole, panic, and social-media-driven alarmism will end up having the opposite effect of that intended. If you’re a native-born American or a naturalized citizen who worries about being hassled by ICE agents or even detained — it happens — and you hear people talking about how ICE is going to be at polling place, are you more likely to show up and vote, or less likely? There’s a nonzero chance that talk of Trump’s alleged impending skullduggery will turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. If people expect chaos at their voting locations, they may well decide to sit it out this year. Polling suggests that Republicans are going to lose, anyway.
If I wanted to maximize turnout by voters who are opposed to Trump, the message I would want everyone to hear is that voting is safe and that if you want to vote, you should. I don’t know if I would want potential voters to hear about how “How Trump Could Interfere With the Midterms on Election Day, and the Days After.” Ask Georgia Republicans what happens when people hear conspiracy theories that the election is rigged, as they did in 2020. People don’t bother to show up.
I think everyone who is legally eligible to vote — that’s important, underline that part in red — and who wants to vote ought to do so.