One of the great benefits of winning landslide elections is that you end up building up your own bench of viable candidates while diminishing the other side’s. In this respect, the Republican sweeps of 2010 and 2014 were terrific for the GOP and devastating for the Democrats. Why is Joe Biden president, rather than a younger, Obama-esque star? Why, even now, would it be tough for the Democrats to find a replacement for Biden, even if they wanted to? In part because, in 2010, 2014, and, to a lesser extent, 2016, the Republicans did so well.
And they’re wasting it. In his role as head of the party, Donald Trump has made life extremely difficult — and extremely unpleasant — for anyone who does not agree with him completely, and for anyone who decides to run for office without his imprimatur. And people have noticed. Doug Ducey, a product of the 2014 wave, decided not to run for the Senate in Arizona. Chris Sununu, a product of the 2016 wave, decided not to run for the Senate in New Hampshire. Larry Hogan, a product of the 2014 wave, decided not to run for the Senate in Maryland. Cory Gardner, a 2014 winner, passed on a run in Colorado. Pat Toomey retired. Rob Portman retired. Surely, these decisions are not all accidental. Certainly, they are enough to form a pattern. Ducey, Sununu, Hogan, Gardner, Toomey, and Portman are all intelligent people who may well have reasonably concluded that they didn’t want their lives ruined by challenging a Trump-backed candidate in a primary, or by being an elected officeholder in a party still overly in thrall to his whims. As Joe O’Dea found out, as Brian Kemp found out, and as Ron DeSantis is about to find out, the only thing that ever prevents Trump from throwing grenades at his own side is his current mood. Why bother?
This is crazy. In his races for governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey won in a landslide twice — by eleven points in 2014, and by 14 points in 2018. He’d have won a Senate race this year. In his races for governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu has now won by two points, seven points, 31 points, and 16 points. He’d have won a Senate race this year. Larry Hogan won two victories in Maryland — by just under four points, and then by twelve points. He probably would not have won a Senate race, but he’d have helped the party down-ballot, especially in the House. In his race for Senate in Colorado, Cory Gardner squeaked by in 2014, and probably would have lost, but I suspect he’d have been more effective at the top of the ticket than was Joe O’Dea. Rob Portman won by 15 points in 2010, and 21 points in 2016. He would likely have gained as much of the Ohio vote as Governor DeWine, and he wouldn’t have used as much of the GOP’s money in the process. Pat Toomey won more closely: by two points in 2010 and 1.5 points in 2016, but he won in Pennsylvania both times, and would likely have done so again.
The GOP should have been taking advantage of these figures for years to come. Instead, Donald Trump kept them on the sidelines — and, even worse, pushed for replacements chosen from the third tier of possibilities rather than the top. That’s a choice, and one that Republican voters ought to consider as they decide whether working hard to put good people into office is worth their effort and their care.
Editor’s note: This post has been corrected to note that Doug Ducey won his gubernatorial reelection in 2018.