When both candidates in a race are still well short of the magic 50 percent threshold, it all — say it with me — comes down to turnout.
Every two years, when I look at the fall polling in Senate races, I use the same basic framework, which I explained here and here:
First, I note that mid-September polls are typically not the last word in these races, which tend to move in a wave direction nationally, either in the direction of reflecting toward the president’s approval rating (in midterm years) or with the presidential race (in presidential years). Second, I look at the RealClearPolitics poll averages with particular attention to how far each candidate is from the magic 50 percent mark and what share of the remaining undecided vote would need to break in the Republican candidate’s direction to get to 50. I typically also flag how robust the data are for each race — how many polls make up each state’s average, and how many of those are relatively recent.
My approach is, I stress, a metric, not a model. I’m not making mathematical predictions or odds. I’m just collecting the data we have in one place, asking how much room there remains to move based on the current polling, and drawing from that some conclusions about what races are most winnable if one party or the other has the wind in its favor.
Where do things stand as of now? There is, perhaps, the tiniest glimmer of hope for Sam Brown in Nevada, where the early voting has been heavily Republican, and polls show Jackie Rosen under 50 percent. An incumbent never wants to be below 50 this close to the election, but it’s less alarming if you’re Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, Deb Fischer, or Martin Heinrich with a strong state partisan tide at your back (assuming New Mexico isn’t going to surprise anyone, as Jim Geraghty argues).
If you’re Rosen, Bob Casey, or Tammy Baldwin and the presidential race is tight in your state, it’s a worry. If you’re Sherrod Brown and the tide is heavily against you, it’s really time to be nervous, even if you continue to hold a lead. Brown and Jon Tester — who is finished unless the polls are just wildly wrong — are the only incumbents below 48 percent, but Rosen, Casey, Baldwin, and Heinrich are all below 49 percent.
We finally got fresh polling in New Jersey, which predictably shows a Democratic blowout for Andy Kim, and we finally got polling in Nebraska’s special election, which predictably shows a blowout for Pete Ricketts.
Looking at where the races have shifted overall since mid September, and leaving aside dead-cat bounces like in New York, we still see the gravitational pull in favor of Republicans in the presidential race — even in Arizona, where things are finally looking less entirely one-sided for Ruben Gallego over Kari Lake. You’d still need to be a pie-eyed optimist and hardened poll skeptic to hold out hope for Lake or Nella Domenici in New Mexico, but those straws are at least grasp-able.
The real news at the moment is that Eric Hovde in Wisconsin is looking better than the last time I ran the numbers, while Mike Rogers in Michigan and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania appear stalled. Still, with both candidates in each of these races still well short of the magic 50 percent threshold, it all — say it with me — comes down to turnout.