Once the most underachieving GOP senatorial candidate of the cycle, Mehmet Oz is slowly climbing back into a competitive race.
Since the last time I checked in on the man I called “the Ford Pinto of Senate candidates,” Pennsylvania Republican Mehmet Oz is doing better, trailing rival John Fetterman by four percentage points in the Emerson poll and five points in the Susquehanna poll. That’s not good, but it’s considerably better than the double-digit margins in some polls this past summer.
If those two most recent polls are accurate, Oz finds himself in the odd position of winning self-identified independent voters, but still trailing overall because he hasn’t unified Pennsylvania Republicans behind him.
In the Susquehanna poll, Oz is winning 78 percent of self-identified Republicans, while Fetterman is winning 87 percent of self-identified Democrats; 13 percent of Republicans support Fetterman, while 9 percent of Democrats support Oz. Intriguingly, Oz is winning independents, 50 percent to 40 percent.
The Emerson poll shows a similar split — Oz is winning 77 percent of self-identified Republicans, while Fetterman is winning almost 88 percent of self-identified Democrats. In this survey, 9 percent of Republicans support Fetterman, while almost 9 percent of Democrats support Oz. This survey also finds Oz winning independents, 52 percent to 40 percent.
Usually, winning independents is a good sign! Too bad for Oz that a significant-enough chunk of Republicans are, at least for now, preferring the giant, Carhartt-hoodie-wearing Democrat.
If there’s hope for Oz, it is that, as November approaches, those lingering hard feelings about a hard-fought primary gradually heal, and self-identified members of a party usually “come home” to their party’s nominee. Those wary Republicans may inch back toward Oz if he and GOP-aligned groups keep beating the drum about Fetterman’s hard-left positions — a moratorium on fracking, his declaration that “gun control can’t wait,” his endorsement of Bernie Sanders for president in 2016, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsing him, his insistence that the Biden administration’s spending has not contributed to inflation, and all the rest.
There is also reason to think that Fetterman’s refusal to debate is reawakening concerns about whether he’s really healthy enough to serve as a senator. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial board declared today that the Democrat’s decision to dodge a debate legitimizes the critique that Fetterman is hiding how slowly he is recovering:
If Mr. Fetterman’s communication skills have not yet recovered sufficiently to effectively debate his opponent, many voters will have concerns about his ability to represent them effectively in Washington. While he has gamely undertaken more campaign events and media interviews in recent weeks, Mr. Fetterman still speaks haltingly and relies on closed captioning to fully understand his conversation partners. . . .
Voters have a right to know whether their prospective senator can do the job — including handling the give-and-take of a vigorous debate.