Biden is up by 9.2 in the national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight‘s method of averaging them. The good news for President Trump is that he would need an even national swing of only 6.6 points to give him an Electoral College victory. In that scenario, three states would flip sides from 2016: Minnesota to the Republicans, Florida and Michigan to the Democrats.
Back then, Trump won while losing 2.1 percent to Hillary Clinton among all voters. His Electoral College advantage is still holding up, but he needs to do better — or for state polls to be underestimating him (which they might be), or both — for it to matter.