Liz Truss is stepping down as prime minister, making her ministry the shortest on record (although Lord Bath’s has a claim at two days in 1746). As I have said over the last few days, her failure is due to bad strategy, economic forces beyond her control, and a failure to understand the nature of the 2019 Tory coalition. An expedited process to find a new leader to replace her is under way, cutting out the party membership, as well it should. As I suggested yesterday, Boris Johnson is likely to be a candidate. The other candidate most likely to reach the final round is Rishi Sunak.
This will put the Brexiters in direct conflict with what I termed the Whig faction, with the Thatcherites now discredited (although Kemi Badenoch might put in a good showing for them). However, as the Institute of Economic Affairs’ Steve Davies has noted, the three factions have faced a Condorcet paradox. The Thatcherites prefer the Brexiters to the Whigs. The Whigs prefer the Thatcherites to the Brexiters. The Brexiters prefer the Whigs to the Thatcherites. This makes the coalition inherently unstable.
Things may have changed owing to the perceived failure of neo-Thatcherite economic policy. Perhaps the Whigs now prefer the Brexiters, in which case, bizarrely, it is the Thatcherite vote that will decide the election. Will they go with a return to Cameronism (which might entail something like a return to the European Economic Area, an admission that Brexit has failed), or will they go with a return to Johnsonism without Sunak, with high-spending industrial policy aimed at the red wall? It’s not an easy choice for them. More likely, however, the Condorcet paradox remains.
If the new PM is to have a chance of turning things round, he or she will have to treat the party as the coalition it is, giving high-profile roles to members of all factions (although I expect the Thatcherites to be kept away from economic positions).
I would hope to see the new Cabinet concentrate on certain things:
The chancellor should aim to get spending under control and work with the Bank of England to reduce core inflation.
The foreign secretary and international-trade secretary should aim to complete trade deals and open up the markets Britain so desperately needs after Brexit.
The home secretary should concentrate on crime and police reform, getting police forces to focus on stabbings rather than extensive investigations of “offensive” social-media posts.
The business secretary needs actively to reduce the burden of regulation on U.K. businesses (a benefit of Brexit) and ensure affordable reliable energy is available to British households.
The defense secretary should continue to focus on the threat from Russia.
The education secretary should work on de-wokifying education at all levels.
And so on . . . There is a viable set of policies that would appeal to all the factions, if they can stop their infighting.
That is a big “if.”