A stray thought that didn’t quite fit in today’s Morning Jolt section about the death of Mikhail Gorbachev is the seemingly blasphemous question of whether the United States, NATO, and the West really won the Cold War.
At first glance, that seems like a ridiculous question. The Soviet Union dissolved, and the Eastern European countries that were de facto servant states to Russia declared their independence. Across eastern Europe, a whole generation enjoyed free elections, more freedom of speech and more civil liberties than their parents ever imagined. The U.S. strode across the globe as the world’s sole remaining superpower. Even on America’s bad days, we still have the world’s largest economy, an extensive network of allies, gobs of diplomatic influence and soft power, the ability to project military forces into any corner of the globe quickly, top-of-the-line innovation and technology, an education system that remains the envy of the world, and roughly 150 million people around the globe who dream of living here, some of whom willing to swim through shark-infested waters for the opportunity. By just about every measure, the U.S. – along with our allies – look like the undisputed reigning heavyweight geopolitical champions of the world.
And yet… Putin-era Russia doesn’t look all that different from the bad old days of the Soviet Union, particularly this year.
The Russian army invaded neighboring territories – not just Ukraine today but Georgia and Crimea in the not-so-distant past. The Russian military operates with horrifying brutality and the deliberate targeting of civilians. In recent years, Russian military forces and like-minded mercenary forces deployed to Syria, Libya, and the Central African Republic. Putin wants the de facto restoration of the Soviet Union’s borders through “spheres of influence,” where eastern European countries bordering Russia would be left technically independent but not really capable of defying Moscow.
Just about all dissent in modern Russia is gone; pro-state propaganda dominates all forms of media. If Russians aren’t happy with Vladimir Putin’s vision for the country, they’re awfully quiet about their objections. The American brands like McDonalds and Starbucks in Moscow disappeared after the invasion. Russia is no longer interested in engaging with the West if that engagement requires them to abandon their dreams of an expansionist empire.
As much as the U.S. and its allies tried to isolate Russia, there are signs that ties to China, Iran, and other countries will mitigate the economic effects of sanctions.
Sure, Putin doesn’t think of himself as Communist, but he still endorses complete government control of whatever the state wants or needs in the economic realm. The oligarchs know the price of their luxurious lifestyle is a privilege that flows from their relationship with the president, and maintaining it depends upon their continued loyalty and obedience to him.
The KGB is now the FSB, the hammer and sickle is replaced with the white, blue and red flag or the “Z” symbol, and the old propaganda rag Pravda is less important than RT television. Putin’s Russia has a different style than the Cold War-era Soviet Union, but it remains the same in most of the ways that matter most: totalitarian, brutal, aggressive, expansionist, habitually deceitful, paranoid, devious, and controlled by men whose blood is almost as cold as the country’s winters.
You see a lot of references to a “new Cold War” or “Cold War 2.0” among foreign-policy thinkers. That suggests the Cold War wasn’t truly “won” or resolved but merely went on hiatus for a generation or so.
In light of all that… did we really win the Cold War? Or did we just win the first round?