We’re number two, so we try harder.
Donald Trump will not be at tonight’s debate. Many of his fans will try to spin his absence as a win. It will not work.
It is certainly possible that, in the long run, Trump will get away with not debating. But make no mistake: If it turns out that Trump’s approach to the primary did not end up costing him the nomination, his victory will be despite his insouciance, not because of it. In 2023, Trump is cutting an arrogant, lazy, bored figure, whose lackluster vapor-campaign seems to have more in common with 2016 Hillary Clinton and 2020 Joe Biden than with his 2016 effort. Insofar as he has one at all beyond his relentless re-litigation of the last presidential election, Trump’s core campaign-message thus far is that he has presumptively won the primary, and that, in order to spare him the bother of competing for votes, everyone else in the race should preemptively drop out. When combined, these positions are rather amusing, implying as they do that, despite 155,507,476 votes having been cast in the 2020 election, the result is still up in the air, while with 0 votes having been cast in the 2024 GOP primary, the result is beyond doubt.
Worse still is the way in which Trump’s languid strategy flies directly in the face of the image he has cultivated for himself. Trump likes to insist that he “fights.” But he won’t debate his challengers. He draws a contrast between himself and “Sleepy Joe.” But his basement-campaign is pure Biden. He rails against arrogant and out-of-touch politicians. But he flew his private plane to the Iowa State Fair and then left after 55 minutes. Often, confidence and panic can look alike — “give up, you can’t win” is a sentiment that one might expect to hear from both the desperate no-hoper and the prohibitive favorite — and yet, in politics, ostentatious presumption is risky. Americans are an impatient people, and they like the plucky underdog. In the 1960s, the Avis car-rental company ran an innovative campaign in which it noted that it was second in the market after Hertz, and proposed that, as a result, it “tried harder.” Consumers noticed, and responded, to the point at which, having ignored the line for years, Hertz was eventually obliged to fight back.
Frankly, I have given up trying to predict what Republican primary voters will do this time around. I simply do not know. But I do know that, even for a figure as sui generis as Donald Trump, the charge of aloofness is a dangerous one. If I were one of Trump’s challengers, I would make sure that, at some point during this evening’s proceedings, I looked right at the camera and said, “I want you all to note who showed up, and who did not; who is fighting for your support, and who is not; who still has a passion for improving this country, and who does not.” Beyond his own convenience, there is no good reason for Trump to have to skipped this debate — and everyone knows it. Credit to any candidate who can point that out, and, for the first time in a while, put the front-runner on the back foot.