Theresa May’s premiership is likely to go down in history as a series of unfortunate — and regrettably preventable — events. Britain voted to leave the European Union in June 2016. In July 2016, Prime Minister David Cameron resigned leaving his successor with a Brexit puzzle to solve, and, at that point, a small but significant parliamentary majority. May became prime minister when few others wanted to. It could have been relatively plain sailing.
“Strong and stable.”
Theresa May arrived at the helm with the promise of a “strong and stable” leadership. She is very boring and so looked and sounded the part. She also seemed rather risk averse. Though many expected her to solidify her parliamentary majority with an election, she said this was not her intention: The next general election would be 2020. But in April 2017, May squandered her parliamentary majority in a “snap” election.
The Labour party, under Jeremy Corbyn, and aided by the credulousness of Millennials who had an unusually high voter turn-out, came frighteningly close to victory. Since then, the possibility of another general election has loomed in the background. Worse still: Many Labour MPs now say they would hold another referendum in the hope of reversing the “Vote Leave” decision.
“No deal is better than a bad deal.”
To avoid the catastrophe of an extremely left-wing Labour party coming to power, and the undemocratic disregard for the referendum results, May must strive for party unity. She must also give the country what they voted for — a clean Brexit with regard to Britain’s trading relationship with the EU. This is why May promised that “no deal is better than a bad deal.” However, this promise, too, has been compromised.
Indeed, in order to appeal to the diverse range of viewpoints within her own fractured party (those who voted Leave versus those who voted Remain) and the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) with whom the Conservative party reached an agreement of mutual support in 2017, May must be sensitive to a number of conflicting interests. This is to say nothing of the approval needed from the rest of the House of Commons and ultimately the European Union.
“Brexit means Brexit.”
If pleasing such a crowd sounds impossible — that’s because it increasingly is. The chances of reaching such a deal are looking increasingly remote with every attempted compromise. Moreover, the DUP are beginning to lose patience which, if not salvaged, will further slacken the Conservative grip on power.
It is here that the problem of the Irish backstop has caused major problems. The avoidance of a hard border, for the maintenance of “frictionless trade,” is necessary in order to appease the Republic of Ireland. But May’s latest attempt to solve this conundrum has resulted in what is effectively a backstop for the whole of the United Kingdom, which would make trading with other countries near impossible.
To say many are unhappy about this is an understatement. Last week, Jo Johnson, the transport minister and MP and the younger brother of Boris Johnson, resigned — and other resignations are expected to follow. May will meet with her cabinet on Wednesday to discuss the Brexit draft that has tentative EU approval, the BBC reports.
The trouble is that May’s previous assertion that “no deal is better than a bad deal” is undermined by the fact that the government has no such contingency in place. But for each mistake May makes, the problems become more and more complicated and the situation, more and more hopeless.